2026 U.S. Open: Surprising Predictions by Golf Model That's Nailed 17 Majors

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The 2026 U.S. Open tees off on Thursday at 6:35 a.m. ET at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, N.Y. Rory McIlroy (Masters) and Aaron Rai (PGA Championship) were the year's first two major winners, and they're both in the 2026 U.S. Open field. J.J. Spaun is the defending U.S. Open champion, while Brooks Koepka won this event at 1 over the last time it was at Shinnecock Hills in 2018. Scottie Scheffler is the favorite in the 2026 U.S. Open odds via FanDuel Sportsbook at +550 as he attempts to complete the Career Grand Slam. 

McIlroy is at +1200 to win his first U.S. Open in 15 years, following closely by Jon Rahm at +1500. Xander Schauffele is +1600 and Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick are both at +1800. Koepka (+4500), Spaun (+6000) and Rai (+6500) are longer shots. Before locking in any 2026 U.S. Open picks, be sure to see the 2026 U.S. Open predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

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SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times and reveals golf betting picks that have a history of being extremely profitable. 

This same model has also nailed a whopping 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters -- its fifth Masters in a row -- as well as last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns on betting sites. 

Now that the 2026 U.S. Open field has finalized, the model simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

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One major surprise the model is calling for at the U.S. Open 2026: Rahm, the third favorite at +1500, stumbles and finishes outside the top 5. He's a golfer to fade in U.S. Open best bets. Rahm won the U.S. Open in 2021, but hasn't finished better than T-7 at this event since that point. He finished T-2 at last month's PGA Championship, but that's the first top-five in a major he's had since 2023, so the model doesn't love him as a win contender this week. See who else to fade here. 

Another surprise: Cameron Young is a top-5 contender on the projected leaderboard despite never having won a major and having slightly longer odds at +2000. Young has two wins and six top-10 finishes this year, including a T-3 performance at the Masters. His strong driving metrics bode well for success at Shinnecock Hills, making him a golfer to back in 2026 U.S. Open win and top-5 bets. See who else to pick here. 

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The model is also targeting several longshots, including one shocking pick who is going off around 45-1 and makes a run for the title. You can only see the model's picks here. 

Who will win the 2026 U.S. Open, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2026 U.S. Open odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 17 golf majors, including three in 2025.

Get full 2026 U.S. Open picks, best bets and predictions here.(odds via FanDuel and subject to change)

Scottie Scheffler +550Rory McIlroy +1200Jon Rahm +1500Xander Schauffele +1600Tommy Fleetwood +1800Matt Fitzpatrick +1800Cameron Young +2000Ludvig Åberg +2200Russell Henley +3300Si Woo Kim +3500Collin Morikawa +4000Chris Gotterup +4000Patrick Reed +4000Sam Burns +4000Tyrrell Hatton +4000Bryson DeChambeau +4000Brooks Koepka +4500Patrick Cantlay +5000Viktor Hovland +5000Justin Rose +5000Justin Thomas +5000Wyndham Clark +5000Maverick McNealy +6000Min Woo Lee +6000Kurt Kitayama +6000J.J. Spaun +6000Aaron Rai +6500Jordan Spieth +7000Harris English +7000Hideki Matsuyama +7000Joaquin Niemann +7000Shane Lowry +7000Robert MacIntyre +8000Ryan Gerard +8000Adam Scott +8000Kristoffer Reitan +8000Ben Griffin +8000Jake Knapp +10000Jacob Bridgeman +10000David Puig +10000Alex Fitzpatrick +10000Gary Woodland +10000Cameron Smith +10000Nicolai Højgaard +10000Sepp Straka +10000Alex Noren +10000Bud Cauley +1000

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