BMKG Predicts El Nino: A Longer and Drier Season Ahead

JAKARTA - Indonesia's weather agency, BMKG, has upgraded its forecast for the 2026 dry season, citing an increased likelihood of El Nino. This phenomenon has the potential to exacerbate drought conditions in various regions and sectors across the country.

BMKG Chief, Teuku Faisal Fathani, stated that El Nino is expected to develop in the middle of 2026. The chances of moderate El Nino intensity are at 98%, while the likelihood of strong El Nino is predicted to be 62%.

"The prediction for El Nino in the middle of 2026 has a 98% chance of moderate intensity. Meanwhile, the likelihood of strong El Nino is predicted to be 62% during the same period," said Teuku at a press conference at BMKG headquarters in Jakarta, Wednesday (10/6).

Faisal predicted that the dry season will begin gradually. In June 2026, the dry season is predicted to occur in 198 weather zones or cover 31.6% of Indonesia's land area.

"Meanwhile, in July 2026, the dry season will expand to 66 weather zones or approximately 7.26% of the land area. In addition, most of Indonesia is predicted to experience the dry season earlier than usual," Faisal said.

BMKG noted that 308 weather zones are predicted to enter the dry season faster than the usual annual conditions. These areas cover 39.77% of Indonesia's land area that will experience an early start to the dry season.

"The beginning of the dry season in most of Indonesia is expected to arrive earlier or more advanced. This condition needs to be anticipated by various sectors to minimize potential impacts," said Faisal.

Additionally, BMKG also predicts that the dry season next year will tend to be drier. A total of 482 weather zones or 56.18% of Indonesia's land area are predicted to experience below-normal rainfall during the dry season.

"The peak of the dry season is predicted to occur in August 2026 in 369 weather zones or covering 48.84% of Indonesia's land area. The duration of the dry season is expected to be longer than usual in 437 weather zones or approximately 48.77% of the land area," said Faisal.

BMKG requests the government and various sectors to utilize climate predictions as a basis for taking anticipatory steps. These steps are necessary to face the potential impacts of El Nino and the prolonged dry season in 2026.