BMKG Predicts El Nino to Become Active and Linger Until Early 2027

El Nino is predicted to occur from mid-2026 with a moderate to high likelihood. This was stated by Teuku Faisal Fathani, Head of the Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG).

"The predicted El Nino is expected to occur from mid-2026, with a 98% chance of moderate intensity and a 62% chance of strong intensity," Fathani explained in a press conference titled "Perkembangan Musim Kemarau 2026 di Indonesia" held online through YouTube Info BMKG on June 10, 2026.

At the same event, BMKG's Deputy for Climatology, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, added that the El Nino phenomenon will soon become active and persist until early 2027.

"The phenomenon of El Nino, which we have known together, causes climate anomalies in various parts of the world, not only in Indonesia, but also in other regions of the world with different patterns and periods of impact," Ardhasena said. He added that El Nino has a signature in the tropics. For Indonesia, El Nino affects rainfall, resulting in drier weather from June to January. However, it's also worth noting that Indonesia enters the rainy season around late October.

Areas that experience decreased rainfall are not limited to Indonesia, but can also be seen in countries such as Brazil and the Indian subcontinent, as well as southern Africa. Therefore, Ardhasena stresses that El Nino has a global impact.

"This gives us information that the impact of El Nino is global. Therefore, when monitoring various media reports from other countries, there's a concern about the occurrence of El Nino in 2026," he added.