BMKG Raises El Nino Potential, Predicts Delayed Planting Season

According to the Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), this year's dry season is expected to delay the first planting season. Although this prediction is made, BMKG emphasizes that farmers can still make the most of the opportunities in the long dry season.

Deputy Director of Climatology at BMKG, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, explained that out of 699 Zona Musim (ZOM) in Indonesia, 200 ZOM or 11.83% are currently experiencing a dry season as of late-May 2026.

In addition, BMKG's monitoring of the El Nino phase in Indonesia through the Pacific Ocean as of late-May 2026 showed that the sea surface temperature anomaly is at +1.0°C. Meanwhile, the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Indian Ocean is -0.56°C, indicating a low level of activity.

'Anomalous sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific have exceeded the neutral threshold for five decades. BMKG predicts that El Nino will become active and last until early 2027,' said Ardhasena at a press conference about the Development of the Dry Season 2026 in Indonesia, published on BMKG's YouTube channel on Wednesday (10/6/2026).

'The probability of El Nino reaching a moderate intensity is currently 98% and a strong intensity is 62%', he added.

This is an increase from previously predicted levels of less than 20% for a strong El Nino.

Furthermore, Ardhasena stated that there is a probability of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) becoming positive between June and November 2026.

El Nino is known to cause climate deviations in various parts of the world, not only in Indonesia with different patterns and impacts.

For the Indonesian region, El Nino tends to reduce rainfall. Therefore, the region is expected to experience a dry spell from June 2026 to January 2027. However, it is also worth noting that around October 2026, the rainy season has begun.

This prediction aligns with the previous forecast in March 2026, where BMKG predicted that the dry season in Indonesia would be below normal.

According to Ardhasena, this dry spell will affect about 482 ZOM or 56.18% of Indonesia's territory, including most of Sumatra, the entire Javanese region, most of Kalimantan, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, most of East Nusa Tenggara, most of Sulawesi, North Maluku, Maluku, and part of Papua.

BMKG predicts that the dry season in 2026 will be longer than normal, consistent with their previous announcement in March 2026.

437 out of 699 ZOM or 48.77% of Indonesia's territory will experience an extended dry season, while 70 ZOM or 8.32% will experience a normal dry season, and 79 ZOM or 9.23% will experience a shorter-than-normal dry season.

Ardhasena advised to optimize irrigation facilities in areas with existing irrigation systems, and to adapt to crops suitable for dry conditions, such as horticultural crops.

To prepare for the long dry season, farmers should adjust their planting schedules and choose crops that are suitable for dry conditions.

Ardhasena emphasized that despite the delayed planting season, there are still opportunities for farmers to make the most of the long dry season.