Can Amazon Reach $300 Per Share Before the End of 2026?

Amazon trades at a modest forward price to earnings ratio of 24x, despite 75% earnings growth and the fastest expansion of its AWS division in 15 quarters.

The market's hesitation stems from the company's planned $200 billion capex for 2026, which has reduced free cash flow to $1.2 billion. This has led to a 3.04% decline in shares over the past week and an 11.69% drop over the past month.

Despite this, analysts remain bullish, with 94% consensus expecting a price target of $312.51. However, our internal model predicts $322.28, providing 35.1% upside at a 90% confidence level.

The case for Amazon reaching $300 per share by the end of 2026 requires AWS to maintain 28% growth and advertising to continue compounding at 24%. If these conditions are met, the market may view capex as investment rather than waste.

However, a recession could force Amazon to defend its multiple while continuing to spend $200 billion, derailing the target.

Prediction markets currently assign a 7.8% probability to a $300+ print in June, leaving a potential opportunity for investors.