El Nino Predictions in Indonesia Set to Activate and Last Through 2027

El Nino, a phenomenon known to cause climate variations around the world, is expected to become active in Indonesia very soon. According to Teuku Faisal Fathani, the Head of the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), this phenomenon could last until 2027.

Teuku Faisal explained that the data on sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean in May 2026 showed a monthly anomaly of +1.0. Meanwhile, in the Indian Ocean, sea surface temperature monitoring showed an IOD index of -0.56.

He stated that the sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean have exceeded the neutral threshold for five decades.

"BMKG predicts that the El Nino phenomenon will soon become active and persist until early 2027, with a moderate intensity El Nino category reaching 98% and a strong intensity El Nino reaching 62%," Teuku said on Wednesday (June 10, 2026).

Meanwhile, in the Indian Ocean, there is a possibility of an IOD positive event occurring from July to November 2026.

"It is known that the El Nino phenomenon causes climate anomalies in various parts of the world, not only in Indonesia, with patterns and periods of impact varying.

On the other hand, BMKG also predicts that the peak of the dry season in Indonesia will occur in August 2026.

"Most of Indonesia's dry season zones, which cover 48.84% of the country's land area, are expected to experience the peak of the dry season in August 2026," said Teuku.

In fact, Teuku said that the duration of the dry season in Indonesia is expected to be longer than normal.

"Most of Indonesia's dry season zones are expected to experience a dry season that is longer than normal," he said.

Deputy Director of Climate for BMKG, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, said that at this time, some areas in Indonesia are already experiencing the dry season.

"A total of 200 climate zones or 11.83% of Indonesia's land area are already experiencing the dry season," Ardha said in the same event.

The regions in Indonesia that are already experiencing the dry season include Aceh, Sumatra Utara, Riau, Kepulauan Riau, Banten, DKI Jakarta, Jawa Barat, Jawa Tengah, Jawa Timur, Bali, NTB, NTT, Kalimantan Tengah, Gorontalo, Sulawesi Tengah, Sulawesi Barat, Sulawesi Selatan, Sulawesi Tenggara, Maluku, and Papua Selatan.