Ethereum: The Market Watches a Crucial Quarterly Close

Ethereum is at a pivotal point in the quarter, as ETH risks recording a sequence never seen before in its history. The second-largest cryptocurrency remains in decline, but it still has a window to reverse the trend. With a more favorable macroeconomic context, contrasting technical signals, and an increase in staking, the quarterly close is now the focus of attention.

Ethereum is on the verge of its first series of three consecutive red quarters.

Ethereum is going through a marked decline phase as the end of the quarter approaches. In this context, the asset is approaching an important historical threshold. According to Coinglass data, it has never ended three consecutive quarters in the red. Such a close would be a first since its creation and would reinforce investor caution.

Recent figures show the extent of this pressure on the market:

This succession of losses translates to a prolonged period of weakness for Ethereum. It also weighs on investor confidence, as the market now awaits a clearer signal before returning to the asset more forcefully. This correction has also brought ETH close to low levels observed over several years.

In this climate, fear remains present. Analyst Dann Crypto Trades summarized the situation, stating that 'Ethereum is heading towards its second-worst first half after 2022'. Thus, the quarterly close becomes a crucial moment to measure ETH's ability to limit this negative sequence.

A rebound is still possible before the close.

Despite the recent decline in Ether, the situation remains open before the end of the quarter. With two weeks left until the close, the asset still has a last window to reduce its losses and avoid a third consecutive period in the red. The deadline is short, but a recovery movement can still influence the final performance if the dynamics are maintained.

Several elements still support the hypothesis of a rebound:

This context gives an argument to buyers, even if caution remains necessary. More modest rebounds had also followed similar periods in 2019 and 2020. These precedents show that the asset has already managed to recover after prolonged periods of weakness.

However, it is essential to maintain a nuanced reading. A sustained rebound might need to extend into the third quarter, which remains historically the weakest for Ethereum. Its average return is only 7.44%, which shows that the road to a more solid increase can remain fragile despite recent signals.

Staking and technical signals support ETH, despite the risks.

Technical indicators also give mixed signals. Analyst Ardi observes a convergence with several former cycle lows. He cites the recent contact of ETH with a lower acceptance cloud, as well as certain trends related to the RSI. For Ethereum, these elements can suggest a phase of gradual stabilization.

But this reading remains cautious. The weekly RSI has not yet spent several weeks below the 30 threshold, as in previous cycles. In parallel, the ETH/BTC pair remains in a strong downtrend. As long as this pair continues to decline, ETH still has downside potential.

On the blockchain, staking data shows sustained demand. More than 39.5 million ETH are currently locked in over 887,000 validators. This dynamic shows that many holders choose to lock their tokens instead of selling them.

This evolution does not confirm a strongly bearish scenario. On the contrary, the progress of staking can limit part of the potential selling pressure. Ethereum is therefore entering a decisive quarter-end: a confirmed rebound could avoid a historic first, while further weakness would prolong the market's uncertainty.