Ian Machado Garry Needs to Fight a Near-Perfect Fight Against Islam Makhachev at UFC 330

Ian Machado Garry enters UFC 330 as the underdog, but dismissing the Irish contender's chances against Islam Makhachev could be a mistake. With a 28-1 record, Makhachev will put the UFC welterweight championship on the line Saturday, Aug. 15, at Philadelphia's Xfinity Mobile Arena, where he plans to showcase his extraordinary grappling skills and dominance over his opponents. Garry, on the other hand, comes in with a 17-1 record, and an impressive UFC résumé that includes wins over Carlos Prates and former welterweight champion Belal Muhammad. The 28-year-old Irishman is a long, rangy welterweight whose greatest weapon may be his ability to control distance, a skill that could make this a far more complicated fight for Makhachev than the betting line suggests.

On paper, the champion appears to have almost every advantage. Makhachev is one of the most accomplished wrestlers and submission specialists in the UFC, and his ability to turn a striking exchange into a takedown has overwhelmed elite opponents throughout his career. His victories over Charles Oliveira, Alexander Volkanovski, and Dustin Poirier helped establish him as one of the sport's best pound-for-pound fighters. He then moved to welterweight and defeated Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 322 to claim the 170-pound title. With such a formidable opponent, Garry will need to rely on his strategic discipline and movement to outmaneuver Makhachev.

That combination of size, movement, and patience could make this a far more complicated fight for Makhachev than the betting line suggests. If Garry is going to become the first man since 2015 to defeat Makhachev, the fight probably begins with one simple objective: keep the champion at the end of his punches. Makhachev is at his most dangerous when opponents allow him to establish his grappling rhythm, closing the distance and chaining takedown attempts together until an opponent is forced into increasingly difficult defensive positions. Garry cannot afford to spend long stretches with his back against the cage, as this would allow Makhachev to dictate the pace of the fight. Instead, Garry will need to make Makhachev repeatedly cross open space, using his height and reach to accumulate points without constantly committing to exchanges.

The challenge is maintaining that discipline for 25 minutes. One mistake against Makhachev can change the entire fight, so Garry must remain focused throughout. This is where the matchup becomes particularly difficult for Garry. Makhachev's success isn't based on a single takedown; his greatest strength is the ability to connect phases of the fight, making a failed shot become a clinch, a clinch become a trip, and a scramble become back control. And once Makhachev gets an opponent into a vulnerable position, his submission game can finish the fight. Therefore, Garry needs more than just good takedown defense; he needs a plan for what happens after the first takedown attempt.

Charles Oliveira, who has trained with Garry and previously shared the cage with Makhachev, believes the Irish contender has a legitimate opportunity. Oliveira said Garry has been focused on Makhachev for an extended period and praised his strategic discipline, arguing that Garry does not abandon the game plan when a fight becomes difficult. That could be one of Garry's most important qualities Saturday, where his patience and endurance will be tested. The early betting market still strongly favors Makhachev, but that doesn't mean Garry can't cause an upset. With a well-executed game plan, Garry has a legitimate chance of producing one of the biggest upsets of the UFC's year.

If Garry is going to become the champion, he will need to execute his plan flawlessly. Maintaining distance rather than allowing Makhachev to establish prolonged clinches will be crucial. Garry must make the champion work for every entry and punish unsuccessful takedown attempts, avoiding prolonged ground exchanges, particularly with Makhachev in dominant positions. He must stay disciplined late, when fatigue could make his defensive reactions slower. Win enough minutes on the feet to force Makhachev to take increasingly aggressive risks. If Garry can do those things, he will have a genuine chance of taking the title.

The most obvious is a decision victory built around movement, volume, and distance management. If he can consistently prevent Makhachev from establishing dominant grappling positions, force him to reset, and make him work across the full width of the Octagon, Garry could make the fight increasingly uncomfortable. There is also the possibility that Garry's size creates problems that Makhachev has not encountered regularly at lightweight. If Garry can make the champion pay every time he enters the pocket, Makhachev may have to take greater risks to close the distance. And greater risks create opportunities.

The problem for Garry is that almost every theoretical advantage comes with a major caveat. Keeping Makhachev off him for five rounds is an enormous assignment. Makhachev has demonstrated an ability to make elite fighters fight at his preferred pace, wearing them down with his wrestling and controlling the clock. His ability to dictate the pace of the fight could become a major factor, making Garry's task even more challenging.