Iran's Ominous Move: Fresh Mines in the Strait of Hormuz

A report from Axios reveals that Iran has deployed more mines in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a US official and a source with knowledge of the issue.

This development sheds light on Trump's earlier post on Truth Social, where he stated that oil prices rose for the third consecutive day and erased the drop on the "Hormuz is open" message from Iran's foreign minister.

However, this optimism has faded as the US refused to unblock the Strait, and Iran resumed its blockade.

The latest chart pattern appears to be carving out the second shoulder in a head-and-shoulders pattern, which, if confirmed, would be good news and point to a cratering of oil prices.

However, it's worth noting that Vitol estimated that 600-700 million barrels of oil had already been lost in this conflict, and it will ultimately take 1 billion barrels out because of slow restarts, even if the war ended soon.

Even with Iran and the rest of OPEC running at full speed, it would take a year or two to get inventories back to where they were pre-war.

With this in mind, it's hard to see oil completing this pattern and falling to $60-65.

Consequently, the risk is that we run back above $100 as the physical market tightens.

Iran doesn't appear to be backing down at the moment, and the situation is further complicated by the mines report and the rhetoric out of Israel.