Japan Officially Declares El Nino Has Arrived, Bringing Storms and Heatwaves

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has announced that the El Nino phenomenon is believed to have developed in the spring of 2026.

This announcement makes the JMA one of the first major meteorological agencies to officially declare that El Nino conditions have emerged this year.

According to the JMA, the Japanese region is currently preparing for above-normal temperatures across the country.

This condition is triggered by the rise in Pacific sea surface temperatures above average.

The JMA's move precedes other global predictions, where meteorologists around the world are also becoming increasingly convinced that a Super El Nino phenomenon is looming.

For this summer, the JMA says atmospheric conditions resemble those seen in 2023.

Even when forecasts take into account the development of El Nino, the jet stream is expected to remain further north than usual, allowing the Pacific high-pressure system to strengthen and expand into Japan.

As a result, temperatures are expected to remain above normal across the country.

The JMA urges citizens to take precautions against heat attacks and other heat-related illnesses.

Meanwhile, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released an estimate that the chance of El Nino emerging in June is 82 percent.

Although NOAA is scheduled to release an updated weather forecast, the US seems unlikely to rush to follow Japan's lead.

According to former NOAA meteorologist Alan Gerard, the US still needs a few more weeks before it can issue an official declaration about El Nino.

Despite the lack of official declarations from several countries, Gerard reports that the Earth's atmosphere is already showing clear signs of El Nino's presence.

One strong indicator is the emergence of three storms in the Eastern Pacific in just the last 10 days, marking the beginning of an extremely active storm season in the region.

The increase in storm activity in the Pacific basin is a characteristic symptom of El Nino.

Above-average sea surface temperatures cause the ocean to release more heat energy into the atmosphere, helping storms to organize and strengthen quickly.

These signals include consistent shifts in rainfall and cloud cover that are consistent with increased convection in the central and eastern Pacific, while convective activity in parts of the western Pacific is suppressed.

As summer approaches, weather forecast models for El Nino are showing a worrying trend of strengthening.