MLB Best Bets Today: Expert Predictions & Picks for Saturday, June 20

Welcome to our latest MLB best bets article, where our expert analysts take a closer look at the biggest games of the day. With a full 15-game slate on Saturday, June 20, we're expecting some exciting matchups, and our team is here to guide you through the key stats, trends, and predictions.

We kick off our analysis with the White Sox vs Tigers game at 1:10 PM ET at Comerica Park. This matchup has been generating a lot of buzz in our office, and for good reason. The Tigers have been playing some solid baseball lately, with a 4-3 win over the White Sox in their previous encounter.

We're expecting a close game in this one, with both teams bringing their A-game. But how can you take advantage of this matchup? Our experts recommend fading the White Sox in this case, citing their watered-down lineup and the Tigers' momentum. Chris Sale takes the mound for the Braves today after being pushed back one day, but his peripheral stats are worse at home than on the road.

Meanwhile, the Brewers are one of the best teams in baseball at taking walks against LHP. They rank third thus far with a 10.7% rate, despite ranking 18th in wRC+ against LHP. This disparity could be used to our advantage today. Milwaukee is a heavy platoon team and will likely stack mediocre right-handed hitters with good plate discipline at the bottom of their order.

Our team also recommends keeping an eye on the Orioles vs Dodgers game at 10:10 PM ET at Dodger Stadium. This matchup has some intriguing stats on both sides, with the Dodgers clearly in their inferior split against LHP. The Orioles are three points higher against RHP, and their projected lineups tell a similar story.

We're expecting a closer look than you might expect everywhere else, with the Dodgers' large starting pitching edge being a major consideration. However, our experts believe the Orioles have some value in this matchup, particularly considering their better defensive lineup and the Dodgers' limited edge in the bullpen.

Lastly, we recommend checking out Trevor Rogers' recent performance, which has been a mixed bag. Although his 5.86 ERA is due to some regression with a .310 BABIP and 61.6 LOB%, his best non-pitch modeling estimator (4.37 xERA) is just shy of 1.5 runs less.

No doubt Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.31 SIERA & ERA) is the far superior pitcher, even if he's due more than half a run of regression on his 2.52 ERA (.219 BABIP, 82 LOB%). It's beyond the starting pitchers where things start to get interesting.

Offensively, we find that smaller than expected edge to the Dodgers. Defensively, the Dodgers beat the Orioles by 23 Runs Prevented and 29 OAA, but with their inferior offensive split, the Dodgers may also be placing their inferior defense on the field (5 FRV) compared to Baltimore's better defensive lineup (7 FRV).

Lastly, the Dodgers do have the better bullpen, but it's only an eight-team and quarter-of-a-run gap via BARTOLO and the same quarter-of-a-run gap by the last 30-day estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA).

Large starting pitching edge for the Dodgers, but closer than you might expect everywhere else. I'm waiting to see where the market goes, but I will probably be playing the Orioles at +200 or better at some point on Saturday, barring any significant lineup surprises.