Netanyahu's Rejection of Gaza Peace Plan: A Diplomatic Victory for Hamas

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's rejection of a US-backed peace plan for Gaza last week offered a diplomatic victory to Hamas, according to some analysts. The Palestinian Islamist movement had agreed to gradually give up weapons in exchange for an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, but agreeing on the definition of 'disarmament' may prove a sticking point.

The US plan, announced by President Donald Trump in July, called for the gradual disarmament of Hamas in exchange for an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the plan more than a week later, undermining the prospect of peace coming to the beleaguered Palestinian territory anytime soon. Netanyahu's announcement came as little surprise to observers of the conflict, as far-right Israeli politicians have said withdrawal from Gaza would be 'unacceptable'. The Israeli military now controls nearly 70% of the 365-square-kilometre (140-square-mile) territory.

The US plan calls for disarmament and storing the Hamas arsenal to be handled by the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), a Palestinian technocratic body set up in January to run the enclave during a transitional phase. However, the NCAG has yet to be allowed to enter the Gaza Strip and currently remains blocked in Egypt due to Israel's refusal to let it enter the territory. While Washington wants to link Hamas's disarmament to a progressive Israeli retreat from the enclave, Israel has said there will be no withdrawal without Hamas's 'genuine disarmament'.

'Israel does not accept the 15-point document,' Netanyahu said unequivocally on Sunday. 'The IDF (Israel Defense Forces) will not carry out any withdrawal until Hamas is disarmed. And when I say the disarming of Hamas, it means heavy weaponry, lighter weaponry, all weaponry. And we are talking about genuine disarmament, not fictitious disarmament.' Netanyahu's rejection of the plan is seen as a diplomatic victory for Hamas, which has been trying to present itself as a 'reasonable actor' in the conflict.

Denis Charbit, a political science professor at the Open University of Israel, said Netanyahu's rejection of the plan was no surprise to many commentators. 'No one in Israel – even on the left – believes for a second that Hamas is serious when it talks about disarmament,' Charbit said. 'As soon as the [first phase of a] deal was signed in October 2025, Israelis have always thought the ceasefire would be torpedoed sooner or later.'

Bertrand Badie, professor emeritus at Sciences Po university in Paris, said the deal's collapse came as no surprise to many commentators, given Trump's penchant for 'short-term wins, headline-grabbing moves and grandstanding'. 'Trump insisted on Monday that his relationship with Netanyahu is 'very good' despite the Israeli leader's rejection of the Gaza plan a day earlier.'

However, Badie also noted that Netanyahu's rejection of the plan was not just about politics, but also about his own personal and domestic politics. 'Netanyahu knows his political and personal future is at stake. Israelis go to the polls on October 27 in the first elections since the horrific October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks. Meanwhile, the Israeli leader faces ongoing charges for corruption, fraud and breach of trust in three separate cases.'

Badie also noted that Netanyahu's rejection of the plan was a sign of Israel distancing itself from Washington. 'Trump and Netanyahu's relationship took a major hit in June, when Axios reported that Trump called Netanyahu 'fucking crazy' and accused him of ingratitude in a phone call,' Badie said. 'Once again, Netanyahu is taking the risk of falling out with Washington to satisfy his voter base and boost his far-right allies, who are hostile to any form of compromise with Hamas.'

Ahead of October's legislative elections, Netanyahu wants to maintain the carefully constructed image of a leader who cultivates good relationships with foreign leaders but who doesn't shy away from confrontation when it comes to defending Israel's national interest,' said Charbit. 'Netanyahu's controversial address to the US Congress at the invitation of Republicans to blast then president Barack Obama's attempts to conclude the 2015 Iran nuclear deal was a classic example.'

As for the implications of Netanyahu's rejection of the plan, Charbit noted that 'we have now entered the grey zone of the deal and it seems like Israel's 'no' isn't really one, just like Hamas's 'yes' isn't either.' 'This is the result of the devaluation of diplomatic speech under Trump. Under the circumstances, Israel's rejection does not necessarily mean the end of the Gaza agreement.'

This article has been translated from the original in French.