Pennsylvania Gubernatorial Poll: Shapiro Maintains Double-Digit Lead Over Garrity, Gap Narrows Slightly

Gov. Josh Shapiro has maintained a significant lead over State Treasurer Stacy Garrity in the polls for the 2024 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election. The latest Quinnipiac University poll, which surveyed 895 self-identified registered voters in Pennsylvania from July 9-13, found that 53% of respondents support Shapiro's bid for a second term as governor, while 40% support Garrity. This marks a slight narrowing of the gap from previous polls, where Shapiro led Garrity by a wider margin. Shapiro's strong showing is largely attributed to his high job approval ratings, with 56% of respondents approving of his performance as governor, compared to 34% who disapprove.

Shapiro has enjoyed consistent support among registered Democrats in the state, with 96% of respondents in the latest poll backing his campaign for a second term. Meanwhile, Garrity has secured significant support among registered Republicans, with 87% of respondents indicating they would vote for her if the election were held today. Independents have also overwhelmingly backed Shapiro, with 58% of respondents expressing support for his bid, while 29% would cast their ballots for Garrity. This suggests that Shapiro's broad appeal and strong leadership have earned him significant traction among swing voters in the state.

Despite the narrowing gap, Shapiro remains the clear frontrunner in the election. The Quinnipiac University poll found that 52% of voters view Shapiro favorably, while 33% view him unfavorably. In contrast, 22% of voters have a favorable opinion of Garrity, while 18% view her unfavorably. This disparity is largely attributed to the lack of name recognition Garrity has among voters. "Still one of the country's most popular governors, Josh Shapiro benefits by his opponent Stacy Garrity's greatest obstacle: people don't know much about her," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

Garrity has sought to capitalize on her grassroots campaign and appeal to voters frustrated with Shapiro's perceived inaction on pressing issues. However, her efforts to close the gap have been hindered by her relative lack of name recognition and the fact that many voters are unsure about her policies. By contrast, Shapiro has built a robust campaign and enjoys broad support among key voting blocs. "This is a double-digit lead with no signs of narrowing, with more Republicans and Democrats giving Shapiro a boost in the polls," said Malloy.

The latest poll also highlights the significance of the economy in the gubernatorial campaign. When voters were asked which issues were most important to them in the election, 74% cited the economy, making it the top issue on voters' minds. A majority of Pennsylvania voters (58%) also disapprove of President Joe Biden's handling of the economy. This suggests that economic concerns could serve as a critical factor in the gubernatorial election, particularly if Shapiro and Garrity choose to emphasize these issues in their campaigns.

Ahead of the election, Pennsylvania voters' concerns about the economy have not been assuaged. A majority of respondents (52%) believe the nation's economy is getting worse, while 21% believe it is improving. This pessimism has been fueled by rising inflation and stagnant wage growth, which have left many voters feeling uncertain about the country's economic prospects. As a result, politicians who address these concerns in a credible and effective manner are likely to be rewarded by voters.

Ultimately, Shapiro's campaign must continue to emphasize his strengths as a leader and communicate clearly about his vision for the state's economy. This will be critical in ensuring that voters perceive him as strong on matters of economic policy and positioned to address their concerns. Meanwhile, Garrity will need to capitalize on her grassroots momentum, but also work to build her name recognition and demonstrate a clear, cohesive vision for Pennsylvania's future.

Fifty-one percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Shapiro, while 33% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 14% haven't heard enough about him. For Garrity, 22% have a favorable opinion of her, while 18% have an unfavorable opinion, and 58% haven't heard enough about her.