Reopening the Strait of Hormuz: A Critical shipping channel needs assurances

NPR's Ailsa Chang talks with Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at BIMCO, the global shipping association, about what it might mean to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

With the U.S. and Iran set to sign a memorandum of understanding on Friday, there is renewed hope that shipping traffic will move freely through the Strait of Hormuz once again.

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President Donald Trump: And as you know, they're doing a little hunting for a couple of mines that they've already found. But it's essentially - ships are starting to go out now. On Friday, it'll be completely opened.

Ailsa Chang: As we keep hearing during the course of this war with Iran, the strait is a critical shipping channel, especially for oil and fertilizer.

Ailsa Chang: We turn now to Jakob Larsen. He's chief safety and security officer for BIMCO, the international shipping association.

Jakob Larsen: Thanks a lot. Nice to be here.

Ailsa Chang: Nice to have you.

Ailsa Chang: OK, so as we just heard, President Trump expects the strait to be completely opened again in just a few days. But based on what you know, do you think ships will be able to pass quite safely through by then?

Jakob Larsen: No, I think on the face of it, that's quite unlikely. The situation is basically unchanged compared to just before this here deal was announced last Friday.

Jakob Larsen: So ships are still waiting inside the Persian Gulf. Both the U.S. and Iran are still enforcing their respective blockades in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters.

Jakob Larsen: And it's very difficult and very risky to - for ships to move through the strait currently.

Ailsa Chang: What about the issue of mines? - because there's a question about whether Iran laid any mines in the strait during this war. What is your sense of that?

Jakob Larsen: It's very difficult for me to assess whether they actually laid mines or not.

Jakob Larsen: So we are a bit in the hands of the naval forces there.

Jakob Larsen: But if, as expected, they have laid mines, then the whole central part of the Strait Hormuz is considered a mine danger area and will be risky to go through.

Jakob Larsen: We are a little bit in the hands of the military here.

Jakob Larsen: We don't have any accurate information ourselves regarding the mine threat, but it - from the looks of it, it could well take some few weeks or even a few months before the mine threat has been completely neutralized.

Ailsa Chang: Well, what will it take for operators to feel confident that it is safe to sail through the strait? What kind of information do you need?

Jakob Larsen: What we need is assurances from both sides of the conflict that a given route is safe to navigate.

Jakob Larsen: And with that, I think shipping will gradually start to pick up.

Jakob Larsen: We also need assurances that hostilities will not be reopened, and that requires more than just unilateral statements.

Jakob Larsen: We need credible assurances from both sides.

Jakob Larsen: And once that is in place and that they, you know, assure us that the route they declare open is actually safe to use, then we will see ships start to move.

Jakob Larsen: But that doesn't mean that everything is hunky-dory because there are still lots of unanswered questions.

Ailsa Chang: Well, one unanswered question is this question of fees, right? President Trump has declared the strait will be permanently toll free.

Ailsa Chang: But Iran has said that no tolls will be levied, but there will be so-called fees.

Jakob Larsen: Did shipping companies pay fees to Iran prior to this war?

Jakob Larsen: No, they didn't.

Jakob Larsen: The Strait of Hormuz is in international straits (ph), and in accordance with international conventions, these have freedom of navigation.

Jakob Larsen: So all ships can sail in and out as long as they do it in a proper and safe way.

Ailsa Chang: Right, there's some debate about whether fees would even be legal - right? - under international law.

Jakob Larsen: Yeah, exactly.

Jakob Larsen: International law has, you know, that freedom of navigation concept, which is so broadly described in the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Seas (ph).

Jakob Larsen: And that doesn't include anything about fees, and the Strait of Hormuz is considered an international strait, so...

Ailsa Chang: Yeah.

Ailsa Chang: Well, then how concerned are you that the flow of goods through the Strait of Hormuz will be permanently changed as a result of this war?

Jakob Larsen: I mean, it's obviously a concern, also given that the international rules-based order seems to be under a lot of pressure these recent months.

Jakob Larsen: So there is some concern, obviously, and shipping industry is a firm support of international conventions because it's really the bedrock of free and international and effective trade at as low a cost as possible.

Jakob Larsen: So therefore, we are concerned, but we also have hopes that common sense will prevail and we can return to...

Ailsa Chang: Can I ask, though, going forward, will shipping companies ever feel like they can rely on the Strait of Hormuz again or in the same way?

Ailsa Chang: I mean, has this whole experience convinced you that maybe it's time to invest in alternative routes?

Jakob Larsen: I think the shipping industry is, of course, really concerned with the fact that Iran now has demonstrated that they are able to virtually close the strait.

Jakob Larsen: So I think a lot of, especially the oil-producing countries, they are looking to alternatives, and that could, for example, be pipelines.

Jakob Larsen: Now, whether that will materialize or not, I think time will show.

Ailsa Chang: Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer for BIMCO, thank you very much.

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