Scottie Scheffler Leads the U.S. Open: A Career Grand Slam on the Line

Scottie Scheffler is on the cusp of history as he enters the U.S. Open with a career Grand Slam within his sights. Prediction markets give him a strong shot at becoming the seventh player in history to complete it, with Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm hot on his heels.

As the 14% favorite on Kalshi's U.S. Open market, Scheffler is offering $57.35 in profit at a $10 stake with a win. The same $10 risk returns $120.41 on McIlroy and $163.51 on Rahm.

Scheffler has been in scorching form since early April, finishing second at the Masters, RBC Heritage, and Cadillac Championship, third at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, a T14 finish at the PGA Championship, and T12 at the Memorial Tournament.

With a win here, Scheffler would join Gene Sarazen, Ben Hogan, Gary Player, Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods, and Rory McIlroy as the seventh player to complete a career Grand Slam. He already boasts a PGA Championship and Open Championship win, as well as two Masters victories in 2022 and 2024.

Rory McIlroy poses the biggest threat to Scheffler's Grand Slam bid. McIlroy, a Grand Slam winner himself, has three top-10 finishes in 2026, including his second straight win at the Masters, and a T7 finish at the PGA Championship.

Historically, Rory has performed well at the U.S. Open, dating back to his 2011 victory and nine top-10 finishes, of which six have come in his last seven tournament appearances.

Jon Rahm dominates LIV Golf, leading the standings with 928.58 points. He's placed top-20 in all nine of his LIV tournaments, including two wins and four second-place finishes. Most recently, he finished second in Andalucia.

Rahm came one T2 finish away at the 2026 PGA Championship from contending for his own career Grand Slam. He has won the Masters and U.S. Open, previously.

Kalshi's market moved toward Scheffler leading up to the U.S. Open. He's remained above 14% for the last two weeks while both McIlroy and Rahm have negative shifts.

Rory traded near 10% towards the end of May, dropping nearly 3% ahead of this weekend's tournament. Rahm saw a similar shift with his previous 7% trading price. Nearly a 2% drop.

To get in on the action, use the Kalshi promo code SIBONUS when you sign up to unlock a $10 bonus after making a qualifying deposit and completing just $10 in trades.

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