Sun vs Mercury Prediction, Pick, WNBA Odds (July 17): Can Connecticut Upset Phoenix?

The highly anticipated WNBA match between the Connecticut Sun and Phoenix Mercury is set to take place on July 17. The game is scheduled to start at 10:00 p.m. EDT at the Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona. This encounter promises to be an exciting one, given the contrasting performances of the two teams this season.

As we analyze the current trends and statistics, it becomes evident that the Phoenix Mercury are favored to win, but the Connecticut Sun has shown significant improvement in their recent games. With only 6 wins on their board and a lowly 11.5-win projection at the start of the season, the Sun's underdog status is largely due to their lower expectations. Nevertheless, the team has been on a 6-1 run against the spread in their last seven games, indicating a significant turnaround.

The Phoenix Mercury, on the other hand, have struggled to regain their form after reaching the WNBA Finals last season. Despite having veterans like Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas, and DeWanna Bonner, the team has seen a decline in Defensive Efficiency, dropping from third to twelfth this season. Furthermore, Phoenix's pace has also decreased from third to twelfth. These statistics raise concerns about the team's performance and potential vulnerabilities.

Another crucial factor to consider is the age of the players on the Mercury's roster, with an average age of 30 years. This relatively older roster may have contributed to the team's decline in Defensive Rating and pace. Comparing this to the Sun's roster, with an average age of 26 years, suggests that the Sun may be better equipped to adapt to the demands of the season.

In addition to these factors, the presence of Brittney Griner, the Sun's star player, makes her a key player to watch in this match. Griner has been limited to just 14 games this season due to injuries but has shown significant improvement, with recent back-to-back 20-point performances. Given her familiarity with the Mercury team, having played for them in her first 11 years, and her current form, Griner poses a significant threat to the Mercury's defense.

The Sun's limited scoring options and the Mercury's lack of size and frontcourt depth will be crucial factors to consider in this matchup. As the game unfolds, the impact of these factors will become apparent, and the outcome will largely depend on how the teams adapt to these challenges. Based on current trends and statistics, the recommendation is to target the player props market, particularly Brittney Griner's scoring prop, which is set at 13.5 points.

The game is expected to be closely contested, with the Mercury favored to win by 4.5 points on the spread. The over/under is set at 164, and the Mercury are a -200 favorite to win outright. Considering the Sun's recent improvement and the Mercury's decline, there is potential for an upset. However, the key factor will be the performance of key players like Griner and Aneesah Morrow, one of the Sun's top scorers.

With the game set to take place at the Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, the atmosphere is expected to be electric. Fans will be eager to see how the two teams match up, and the outcome will have significant implications for their respective seasons. As the game unfolds, the story will continue to evolve, and the outcome will be a testament to the resilience and determination of these WNBA teams.