The arrival of North Carolina's first tropical storm in 2026 and what it could bring

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Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, has brought life-threatening flooding and inches of rain to parts of Texas and Louisiana. The storm, named on June 17, is forecasted to weaken as it continues northeast.

According to meteorologists, it's unlikely that North Carolina will see major impacts from the storm. 'From that point on it is just going to be a rainmaker,' said Gail Hartfield, meteorologist with the National Weather Service's Raleigh office. 'It's going to be a nasty rainmaker for southeast Texas, Louisiana and into Mississippi.'

The National Weather Service is forecasting 5 to 10 inches of rain with some isolated totals near 20 inches through early Friday along the northeast Texas coast, central portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, and western portions of Georgia and Florida panhandle.

'Whatever disturbance is left over from Arthur that is going to track across the Southeast,' said Victoria Oliva, meteorologist with the National Weather Service's Wilmington office. ' Whether or not it gets to North Carolina or our neck of the woods is still questionable.'

The concern would be isolated storms or the potential for gusty winds on Thursday night. 'It looks like it's going to mostly be skirting by our south,' Hartfield said. 'It may clip southeastern North Carolina, so if you're at the beach in the south, southeast coast of North Carolina, it may be a little bit wet, but overall, the rainfall will be south of the Triangle.'

The National Weather Service is predicting a below-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean this year, partly due to warming waters from an expected strong El Niño.

This hurricane season, which began on June 1 and continues through November 30, has a 55% chance of being below normal, 35% of being near-normal and 10% chance of an above-normal season, according to the official forecast released on May 21.

The official forecast predicts that this hurricane season will be relatively mild, with fewer storms and lower intensities than usual.

These storms are categorized based on wind speed, which helps predict potential property damage. Danger from other hazards like flooding, storm surges and tornadoes are not factored into the storm's categorization.

According to the National Hurricane Center, storms are classified as:

The category system uses the following classification:

1. Tropical Depression: Winds of 38 mph or less

2. Tropical Storm: Winds of 39-73 mph

3. Hurricane: Winds of 74 mph or higher

This system helps predict the potential damage and impact of a storm.

Portions of this story were previously published in The News & Observer.

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