Trump's Net Approval Falls to Near Record Low as Democrats Favour Gaining Control of Congress

Since the Iran war resumed, Donald Trump's net approval has plummeted, with him now sitting at a near record low of below -20, pushing him below other past presidents at this point in their terms. This significant drop in his approval ratings has significant implications for his chances in the upcoming midterms, where Democrats are favourite to take control of both chambers of Congress. The generic ballot, which measures the relative support of Democrats versus Republicans, currently stands at 6.7 points in favour of Democrats, with this lead peaking at 7.1 points in late May but falling back to 5.9 points on July 22.

Midterm elections will be held on November 3, with Democrats holding a slight advantage in terms of the generic ballot. As election analyst Nate Silver notes, Trump's net approval is -20.4, just above a record low of -20.6 on July 30. Currently, 58.5% disapprove of his performance, while 38.1% approve. Notably, Trump's net approval had recovered from a low of -20.2 in late May to -16.6 on July 13, but the resumption of the Iran war has pushed his ratings down again.

The resumption of the Iran war has had a devastating impact on Trump's approval ratings, with his net approval currently standing at -12.4 on immigration, -23.7 on trade, -29.9 on the economy, and -42.3 on inflation. Since mid-July, Trump's net approval on the economy and inflation have slumped six points, while his net approval on immigration and trade have been relatively stable. This significant drop in economic confidence is a concerning trend for Trump, with many analysts predicting that this could have serious implications for his chances in the midterms.

The implications of Trump's low approval ratings are far-reaching, with many analysts predicting that Democrats will take control of both chambers of Congress. As election analyst Nate Silver notes, 'Democrats are the favourites to win the Senate with a 6-7 point margin in the generic ballot.' While uniform swing indicates that Democrats need a double-digit margin in the generic ballot to win control of the Senate, Silver's model suggests that Democrats are favourites to win with a 6-7 point margin. In the House, Democrats are favourites if they win by 3-4 points.

While Trump's low approval ratings pose a significant risk to his chances in the midterms, there are still many factors that could go in his favour. If the economy were to improve significantly before the midterms, this could boost Trump's approval ratings and give him a chance to regain the advantage. However, if the economy continues to perform poorly, this could further erode Trump's support and increase the chances of a Democratic sweep.

As the midterms approach, it's clear that Trump's low approval ratings pose a significant risk to his chances of retaining control of Congress. With Democrats favourite to take control of both chambers, the stakes are high for Trump and his party. While there are still many factors that could influence the outcome, one thing is clear: Trump's low approval ratings are a major concern for Republicans and offer a glimmer of hope for Democrats seeking to take control of Congress.

In terms of specific Senate seat predictions, Democrats are currently leading in several key battleground states, including Michigan, where left-wing Democrat Abdul El-Sayed won the August 4 primary but currently trails Republican Mike Rogers by 1.6 points in general election polls. However, election analyst Nate Silver notes that Silver's model expects El-Sayed to underperform other Democrats in November, but still win. Despite this, Democrats still have leads of three points or less in Texas, Ohio, and Alaska, and are behind by 0.3 points in Iowa, making these states crucial battlegrounds in the fight for control of the Senate.

Furthermore, as Senate elections are strongly correlated with presidential approval, Trump's low approval ratings could have a devastating impact on Republican candidates up for election in November. As election analyst Nate Silver notes, 'Democrats are the favourites to win the Senate with a 6-7 point margin in the generic ballot.' This makes it clear that Trump's low approval ratings are a major concern for Republicans and offer a glimmer of hope for Democrats seeking to take control of the Senate.

Finally, it's worth noting that the July jobs report, released last Friday, was disappointing, with 23,000 jobs lost and the May and June jobs added revised down by a total of 103,000. While the unemployment rate did drop 0.1% to 4.1%, this was due to a fall in the participation rate, rather than a genuine increase in employment. This weak jobs report raises concerns about the state of the economy and could further erode Trump's support in the midterms.