UFC Prelims Picks for Kape vs Horiguchi Card - Top Underdogs & Best Bets  Sports Betting Dime

Get ready to find your next winning ticket as the Octagon returns to the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, NV, tonight. While the MMA world is rightly buzzing about the 9:20 PM ET main event clash between #2 Manel Kape and #5 Kyoji Horiguchi, sharp bettors know the real value often hides in the shadows of the undercard. The action kicks off at 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+, and we are hunting for early profits before the cage doors even lock for the big boys.

This 7-fight slate is dripping with actionable betting angles. Whether you are looking to lay the chalk on a heavy favorite, beat the point spread (yes, MMA has a robust ATS market now), or take a flyer on a live underdog, we have you covered. We aren’t just betting blindly based on line movement; public money does not automatically equal value. Instead, we are diving deep into situational trends, physical matchups, and striking metrics to pinpoint the most favorable wagers on the board.

Keep reading for my UFC prelims picks for the Kape vs Horiguchi card, including the top underdogs and best bets.

Andre Lima (-625) and Bia Mesquita (-575) headline the UFC Prelims odds as the two heaviest favorites on the board, with Michael Aswell (-425) not far behind. The lone coin-flip is Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos, where the moneyline sits at a near pick ‘em despite a sky-high -620 on the under. Before locking in any of these prelim plays, compare numbers across the best UFC betting apps to make sure you’re getting the best available price.

Bia Mesquita, also known as ‘The Lady GOAT’, enters the Octagon with a flawless 7-0 professional record. Her opponent, Melissa Mullins, sports a 7-2 record and holds the physical advantages on paper, but Mesquita’s grappling pedigree is simply off the charts. If Mullins spends the whole fight worried about the takedown, she’s going to end up eating clean leather on the feet.

When they inevitably go to the mat, expect Mesquita to wear down her opponent. Mullins should be able to fight her off for a round and a half, but eventually she’ll succumb to the submission. Mesquite has submitted five of her seven opponents thus far, and I’m betting Mullins will be the sixth.

The Andre ‘Mascote’ Lima vs Kevin ‘El Gallo Negro’ Borja tale of the tape heavily favors the Brazilian. Lima brings a pristine, undefeated 11-0 record into this contest, showcasing incredible consistency early in his career. On the other side of the cage, Borjas carries a respectable but much more vulnerable 10-5 mark, and his recent output has quite literally fallen off a cliff.

Lima stands slightly taller at 169 cm to Borjas’s 165 cm, though Borjas will look to maximize a narrow reach advantage (173 cm to 171 cm). Ultimately, Lima’s momentum as an unbeaten prospect is too much to ignore, but laying -625 straight up is poor bankroll management. Instead, look to the totals. Over 60% of Borjas’s recent losses have gone to the judge’s scorecards, making the over a highly attractive situational angle.

This flyweight matchup presents a stark contrast in both experience and physical stature. Taking this fight on short notice is a nightmare for Mitch Raposo’s career trajectory. Allan Nascimento is a highly seasoned veteran, boasting 28 professional fights and an impressive 22-6 record. Raposo, by comparison, enters with a 10-3 mark.

Furthermore, Nascimento will enjoy massive physical advantages; his 175 cm height and 177 cm reach easily eclipse Raposo’s 165 cm frame and 164 cm reach. A 13-centimeter reach discrepancy in the flyweight division is borderline unfair. At -166, Nascimento carries a vig-free win probability of roughly 60%. Given the sheer disparity in cage time and length, Raposo is going to be swinging at ghosts by the second round. Nascimento lit the lamp with brilliant striking accuracy in his last outing, and he’s poised to do it again here.