UFC Prelims Predictions, Best Bets & Value Picks for Abu Dhabi

The stage is set for an electrifying night of mixed martial arts as the UFC touch down in Abu Dhabi for their latest event. The action-packed card is headlined by the massive showdown between Magomed Ankalaev and Bogdan Guskov, but before the bell rings for the Main Card, there's plenty of money to be made in the prelims. With coverage available on Paramount+, the undercard is set to get underway at 9 am ET from the Etihad Arena, promising an exhilarating start to the night.

When evaluating the preliminary bouts, several factors come to play in determining the most viable betting options. Physical advantages, career momentum, and experience against top-level opposition all contribute to our expert predictions. We dive into each of these aspects, providing you with in-depth analysis and insider knowledge to help you make informed decisions. In this article, we'll take a closer look at our top picks and the reasoning behind each selection.

One of the most intriguing matchups on the prelim board features Valter 'The Clean Monster' Walker taking on Thomas 'The Train' Petersen. Walker's imposing presence in the Octagon is hard to ignore, standing at an impressive 199 cm tall with a massive 206 cm reach. This size and reach disparity puts Petersen at a significant disadvantage, making it a monumental task for the latter to overcome.

Beyond the physical advantages, Walker's career momentum plays a significant role in our analysis. With an impressive 15-1 record, Walker has demonstrated his prowess as a formidable opponent. In contrast, Petersen's 11-4 mark shows he's capable, but overcoming an 18-centimeter reach deficit against a one-loss titan is a daunting task. Rather than laying the -200 moneyline, we recommend attacking Walker's finishing upside. His size and reach should allow him to control the terms of engagement, punish Petersen's entries, and create opportunities for a stoppage before the final horn.

Another key matchup in the prelims sees Mike 'Beast Boy' Davis face off against 'Tajik Eagle' Nurullo Aliev. While Davis is a formidable opponent with a 12-3 record and a slight size advantage, Aliev represents an entirely different class of challenge. As an unblemished 11-0 in his professional MMA career, Aliev's perfect track record demonstrates an elite ability to impose his will.

Instead of paying the -225 moneyline, we would rather isolate Aliev's most likely path: takedowns, control time, and extended grappling sequences across three rounds. Davis is durable enough to make a finish less automatic, but Aliev's wrestling gives him a clear route to banking minutes and winning on the scorecards. Our analysis of this fight indicates that Aliev's ability to control the pace and exploit Davis's vulnerabilities makes him the better value pick.

Jacoby is another prelim favorite we're willing to back, but we prefer the method market to laying his -180 moneyline. Muhammad Said is a dangerous opponent, but Jacoby's veteran striking, composure, and experience against UFC-level opposition give him the clearer path over three rounds. Our read is that Jacoby will win by decision if he can keep the fight at kickboxing range, manage distance, and avoid extended grappling exchanges. His experience should help him win minutes without needing to force a finish, making the decision prop the better way to play this prelim favorite.

Gibson is our upset pick, and it's worth considering a sprinkle-only play on him due to his experience and ability to make this fight messier than the market suggests. Abdul Hussein is the more likely winner, and his price tells us that clearly. However, Gibson's path to victory doesn't require him to be the cleaner athlete minute-to-minute. He needs durability, clinch resistance, timely scrambles, and enough boxing volume to steal rounds if Hussein slows down. This is not a pick we'd rank near Walker, Aliev, or Jacoby in terms of confidence, but his experience and ability to adapt make him an interesting underdog option.