Watching Potential Tropical Development in Eastern Gulf This Weekend: A Weather Alert for Central Florida

Published: July 17, 2026 at 5:56 PM

ORLANDO, Fla. – Shower and thunderstorm chances continue to be elevated into this weekend with the introduction of tropical moisture over Central Florida from a blossoming mid-level low pressure system off the coast of Southwest Florida. As this mid-level low moves north towards the Big Bend, the National Hurricane Center says there is a chance for a surface low to form and develop tropical characteristics over the weekend. The amount of rainfall we see this weekend will depend on how organized this low pressure system gets.

The more organized this low becomes, the less rainfall Central Florida will see this weekend.

If this low remains disorganized and not well-defined, the shield of tropical moisture associated with it will be allowed to spread eastward over our area.

If it becomes more organized, the moisture will become more tightly wound near the center. In this case, the moisture, and therefore rain chances, will shift further west.

While not a washout, the addition of tropical moisture in our skies will help to charge our sea breeze to squeeze out a decent amount of showers and thunderstorms. Our Saturday morning will start dry with a mix of sun and clouds. This will allow our temperatures to climb into the low 90s by lunchtime. This will be the spark, in addition to the added moisture, for off and on storms to roll through.

Expect off and on scattered storms moving from south to north from early afternoon towards sunset. With the moisture and general instability lingering around, isolated showers are possible through the overnight.

Rain coverage Sunday will heavily influenced on the track and organization of this low in the Gulf. Afternoon storms are still expected in the afternoon after temperatures reach the low 90s after a partly cloudy morning.

Like Saturday, storms will occur on a rolling basis from South to north. If the low becomes more organized and pulls moisture further west, our coverage will be more scattered. If it remains disorganized and the moisture shield remains on top of Central Florida, coverage will be more widespread.

As this low begins to move away from the state next week, moisture will move out of our skies and slightly drier air will gradually work in. Rain chances will gradually decline to near, or just below, average values by mid-week with highs returning to the mid-90s.

The News 6 Weather team ensures you're always on top of the day's weather.

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AMS Certified Meteorologist with a decade of experience forecasting in the state of Florida. Jordan has covered some of the state's most recognized hurricanes including Irma, Michael, Ian, Milton, and Helene.

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