El Nino 2026: Indonesia Faces Potential Drought and Water Crisis

Indonesia is bracing itself for the potential impact of El Nino, a climate phenomenon that could lead to drought and water crisis in the country. According to Professor R. Dwi Susanto from the University of Maryland, various oceanographic and atmospheric indicators suggest that El Nino could develop into a strong to very strong category in the second half of 2026.

Dwi Susanto warned that the formation of El Nino could be triggered by the increase in heat reserves under the surface of the Pacific Ocean, which could push warm water masses eastward. He explained that the Kelvin wave, a giant underwater ripple that moves along the equator of the Pacific, is now starting to push warm water masses from the western Pacific to the eastern Pacific.

This movement is a classic sign of El Nino formation, and it can be monitored through sea surface temperature, sea level height, and wind patterns in the tropical Pacific. International climate prediction models also show a similar trend.

Indonesia is not just a victim of El Nino, but also a key to understanding it. The country is located in the western Pacific warm pool, the region with the warmest tropical sea surface temperature in the world. Additionally, Indonesia is traversed by the Indonesian Throughflow, a ocean current that connects the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

This means that changes in sea conditions in Indonesian waters are an important indicator of the global climate system. Monitoring sea temperature, Arlindo dynamics, and the shift of the atmospheric convection center in the Indonesian maritime area is crucial for early detection.

The situation is made more complex by the potential interaction with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the Indian Ocean. Dwi Susanto warned that the impact of El Nino could be amplified if the IOD is also in a positive phase.

He cited the 1997-1998 event as a bitter lesson: a strong El Nino that coincided with a positive IOD triggered a drastic decline in rainfall, prolonged drought, and massive forest and land fires in Indonesia.

The development of a positive IOD can be monitored from the sea surface temperature in the southern waters of Java and Sumatra - strong cooling in that area is usually a sign of increased drought risk.

In the face of this looming threat, Dwi Susanto urged immediate mitigation measures: water resource management, crop adjustment, and strengthening of forest and land fire prevention.

Preparations must be made without causing panic. What is important is to ensure that climate information can be used as a basis for planning and mitigation, Dwi Susanto concluded.