El Nino Active, Majority of Indonesia Expected to Experience Longer and Drier Drought Seasons

Preparing to watch a soccer game worldwide is about getting ready for a paradox. This is the first time that fans of the sport will face this situation.

The Indonesian Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) warned that El Nino is expected to become active in mid-2026 and may cause more severe and prolonged drought conditions across most of Indonesia.

BMKG Deputy for Climatology Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan stated that the results of monitoring until May 2026 showed that the anomaly of sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean had surpassed the neutral threshold and indicated the strengthening of El Nino.

"BMKG predicts that El Nino will become active soon and continue to persist until early 2027, with a probability of moderate intensity El Nino category reaching 98% and extreme intensity reaching 92%," Ardhasena said in a press conference on updating the 2026 drought prediction, Wednesday (June 10).

According to BMKG, El Nino is expected to cause a decrease in rainfall in Indonesia during the drought season. The condition also strengthened the prediction that this drought season will be drier than normal.

Based on the BMKG drought prediction update, as many as 482 drought zones or 56.18% of Indonesia's territory are expected to experience below-normal or drier than usual drought conditions. Only seven drought zones are expected to experience wetter-than-normal conditions.

In addition to being drier, this drought season is also expected to last longer. BMKG noted that as many as 437 drought zones or 48.77% of Indonesia's territory are expected to experience drought conditions that are longer than the average climatological duration of the period 1991-2020.

"Rainfall during the 2026 drought season is expected to be generally below normal or drier than usual. The peak of the drought season is expected to occur in most areas in August and the duration of the drought season is expected to be longer than normal," Ardhasena explained.

BMKG also predicted that the drought season in 2026 would start earlier in some areas. As many as 308 drought zones or 39.77% of Indonesia's territory are expected to experience earlier drought seasons than normal.

In the near future, as many as 198 drought zones or 31.6% of Indonesia's territory will enter the drought season in June 2026. These areas include most of Sumatra, Kalimantan, Central and West Java, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua.

The peak of the drought season is expected to occur in August 2026 in 369 drought zones or 48.84% of Indonesia's territory. The areas expected to experience peak drought in this period include most of Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Maluku.

BMKG urged government authorities and other stakeholders to take immediate steps to prepare for El Nino and prolonged drought. "In the agricultural sector, BMKG recommends adjusting planting schedules and using drought-tolerant crop varieties. In the forestry and disaster sectors, regional authorities are urged to increase readiness for potential drought and land and forest fires (karhutla)," Ardhasena said.

The water levels in several irrigation areas in southern Cianjur Regency, West Java, have started to decline.

The drought season, which began to be marked by decreasing rainfall in Banyumas, Central Java, has started to affect the availability of clean water in several areas.

The Central Java provincial government has prepared 123 million liters of clean water to face the prolonged El Nino drought. 11 regions are expected to experience drought in June 2026.

BMKG predicts that the 2026 drought season will start earlier in almost 40% of Indonesia's territory. This condition occurs as El Nino's chances increase.

The Indonesian Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) predicts that most of Indonesia's territory will experience the peak of the drought season in August 2026.

BMKG has issued a weather forecast for Central Java for June 12, 2026. Light to moderate rain is expected to fall in four areas of Central Java.

BMKG has issued a weather forecast for today, June 12, 2026. Light to heavy rain is expected to fall across most of Indonesia on Friday (June 12). See the list of areas on high alert.

BMKG predicts that the weather in Jakarta on Friday (June 12) will be dominated by clouds, but light rain is possible in the Jakarta South and West regions.

BMKG predicts that the weather in Jakarta on Friday (June 12) will be dominated by clouds. Watch out for light rain in Jakarta South and West. See the latest temperature details here.

The waves in the southern waters of Central Java from Cilacap to Purworejo have increased from before 1.25-2.5 meters to 2.5-4 meters.

The weather in Southeast Sulawesi today may experience heavy rain and strong winds. BMKG urges people to be vigilant of flash floods, landslides, and fallen trees.

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