Polymarket Odds Spike to 73% for Hormuz Strait Traffic Normalizing by End of May

Polymarket prediction market odds of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by the end of May surged to 73% on Friday after Iranian officials temporarily reopened the strait as part of a ceasefire deal.

The odds climbed to a high of 82% on Friday after Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz is open. Since then, the odds have dropped back down to 73%.

In a post on X, Araghchi stated that the strait is open as part of the ceasefire agreement.

Despite the odds of the Strait returning to normal activity by the end of April sitting at just 40%, traders are confident that the ceasefire will hold.

The war in Iran sent shockwaves through financial markets, impacting crypto and energy prices, as investors and financial analysts react to political developments in the ongoing conflict.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) surged on Friday in response to the temporary reopening of the Strait under the ceasefire, rising to as high as $78,000 before retreating to around $77,358.

Crypto market analyst Nic Puckrin cautioned that the ceasefire is fragile and that core issues remain unresolved.

Puckrin stated that the fallout from the conflict will likely cast a shadow over financial markets for most of the year, pushing back any interest rate cuts until at least Q3 2026.

To see Bitcoin regain its footing at $90,000, Puckrin noted that a ceasefire that results in the end of geopolitical tensions, a sustained drop in oil prices towards $80, and softer-than-expected economic data would all be necessary.

US President Donald Trump reiterated that the US naval blockade on Iran will remain in place until a transaction with Iran is complete.

This development highlights the ongoing tensions between the US and Iran, which will likely continue to impact global markets in the coming months.