Could the Strongest Super El Niño in History Occur This Year?

Smoke billows from a forest fire in Bilgoraj, Poland, on May 6, 2026. (Photo: PAP/VNA)

According to the Daily Mail (UK), the latest forecast model from the European Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Center (ECMWF) shows that the sea surface temperature at the end of this year will be much higher than the average of the past few years.

Scientists usually assess the intensity of El Niño using the Niño 3.4 index, which reflects the level of sea surface temperature anomaly in the central equatorial Pacific.

The two strongest El Niño events ever recorded occurred in 2015-2016 and 1997-1998, when the Niño 3.4 index reached a peak of 2.3 degrees Celsius.

However, experts believe that this record may be broken soon. In most forecast scenarios, the sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific could be around 3 degrees Celsius higher than average in December.

Notably, some simulations show that this difference could even exceed 4 degrees Celsius.

Meteorologist Ben Noll, a global weather writer for The Washington Post, stated on social media that almost all current scenarios show temperatures exceeding 3 degrees Celsius, with some forecasts showing increases above 4 degrees Celsius. He believes this could be the strongest El Niño event ever recorded.

El Niño is part of a natural climate cycle called the Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which alternates between warm and cold phases with a cycle of 2 to 7 years.

During the El Niño phase, warm water accumulated in the Pacific Ocean spreads towards the middle and east of the ocean, increasing the Earth's average temperature. The warmer the sea water, the stronger the impact of El Niño on global weather.

The latest El Niño phenomenon, which lasted from June 2023 to April 2024, is believed to be one of the factors that made 2024 the hottest year on record.

The additional heat from the oceans also made 2024 the first year that the global average temperature exceeded the 1.5°C target set in the Paris Agreement.

Scientists are now worried that the world may be entering a stronger El Niño event, which would further drive global temperatures to new record highs.

The latest ECMWF model uses a relative index approach – which allows for the separation of ENSO's impact from the long-term warming trend due to climate change.

Even the most conservative scenario shows that the sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific could be around 2 degrees Celsius higher than average.

Meanwhile, the Niño 1+2 index, which tracks waters off the west coast of South America, shows that the sea surface temperature there could be nearly 5 degrees Celsius higher than average in November.

For comparison, during the historic El Niño event of 1982-1983, the Niño 1+2 index peaked at 4.2°C, while in 1997-1998 it was 3.9°C.

These predictions come amid warnings from many experts that this summer may see extreme heatwaves as a super El Niño forms.

A thermometer shows the outdoor temperature above 40 degrees Celsius in Beijing, China. Photo: THX/VNA

Previously, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) stated that there is an 80% chance of El Niño occurring between June and August, and a 90% chance that the phenomenon will last at least until November.

Meanwhile, satellite data from the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) shows that a very large mass of warm water, hundreds of kilometers wide, has appeared in the Pacific Ocean. This mass of warm water, also known as a Kelvin wave, usually forms when the wind direction in the western equatorial Pacific changes over a short period.

This phenomenon, along with the weakening of trade winds along the equator, causes the sea temperature in the western tropical Pacific to warm and the sea surface to rise. According to scientists, this is one of the characteristic signs of an El Niño event.

NASA states that the warm ocean wave usually moves from west to east across the Pacific Ocean several months before an El Niño event, and many such signals have been recorded in satellite data for 2026.

If El Niño develops as predicted, global temperatures could continue to rise sharply, causing significant changes in weather patterns around the world.

Typically, El Niño increases rainfall in some regions of southern South America, southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia. In contrast, the phenomenon often causes drought in Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and many regions in South Asia.

With sea temperatures continuing to rise, many scientists believe that 2026 could be the hottest year on record.